Is China Driving Up Oil Prices? The Real Reason Behind Brent’s Surge

China is being blamed for the recent surge in oil prices, but available import data do not clearly support the claim that Beijing is buying more crude to replenish its inventories. According to the analysis, the stronger explanation for Brent crude’s rise to $116 per barrel is a geopolitical risk premium tied to fears of renewed US military action against Iran.

The argument challenges two competing narratives about China’s role in the oil market: first, that reduced Chinese imports helped prevent prices from surging earlier in the conflict, and now, that Chinese stockpiling is driving prices higher.

China’s Oil Imports Have Not Returned to Pre-War Levels

China’s crude oil imports are currently running at approximately 9 million barrels per day (mb/d), compared with around 11 mb/d before the war with Iran.

The analysis argues that this gap does not necessarily indicate weaker underlying demand or a new wave of inventory accumulation. Before the conflict, China was reportedly the main buyer of Iranian oil exports, which were close to 2 mb/d. Following the US blockade of Iran, those barrels became unavailable through the same channels.

Adjusting for the loss of Iranian supply, the analysis concludes that China’s imports are broadly consistent with pre-war conditions. It finds no clear evidence that China has significantly increased purchases to rebuild its oil stockpiles. In fact, its imports remain below their earlier level because the missing Iranian supply has not been fully replaced.

Why China Was Not the Main Driver of Earlier Price Movements

When oil prices did not climb to $150 or $200 per barrel in March and April, one explanation suggested that China had cut its imports and helped stabilize the global market.

The analysis disputes that interpretation. China’s imports declined during the early stages of the conflict, when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was severely disrupted and Iranian oil subsequently faced a US blockade.

Because the supply disruptions affected oil flows more broadly, the author argues that China was not the marginal buyer setting global prices. Its import decline was part of a wider supply shock rather than evidence that China was independently stabilizing the market.

How Asian Oil Imports Have Changed

Monthly import data through September 2026 provide a comparison of crude oil purchases across four major Asian economies: China, Japan, South Korea and India.

• China: Imports are around 9 mb/d, below the pre-war level of approximately 11 mb/d.
• Japan: Imports have returned to roughly 2.5 mb/d, close to pre-war levels.
• South Korea: Imports are also around 2.5 mb/d, broadly in line with pre-war levels.
• India: Imports reached 5.4 mb/d in September 2026, compared with 4.9 mb/d in September 2025.

These figures suggest that Japan and South Korea have returned to their previous import levels, while India’s purchases are slightly higher than a year earlier. China, meanwhile, has not fully replaced the Iranian oil supply lost during the conflict.

However, the figures are monthly and the latest observation is September 2026. They cannot, on their own, establish exactly how import flows have changed in October or explain every movement in current oil prices.

Why Brent Crude Has Reached $116

The analysis identifies a geopolitical risk premium as the main explanation for Brent crude trading at $116 per barrel.

A risk premium can develop when traders anticipate a greater chance of future supply disruptions. In this case, concerns about a possible resumption of US bombing operations against Iran after the US midterm elections are presented as a key source of uncertainty.

Under this interpretation, oil prices are reflecting not only barrels currently being produced and transported, but also the possibility that renewed military escalation could disrupt future supply.

The author argues that this premium is disconnected from current physical supply fundamentals, pointing to the reported normalization of oil flows from the Gulf and the recovery of purchases by major Asian importers.

That remains an interpretation rather than a definitive explanation of the entire price move. Expectations, actual supply conditions and changing demand can all influence crude prices, and the balance between these factors can shift quickly.

What Oil Traders Should Watch

For traders, the distinction between physical market conditions and geopolitical risk is important. Oil prices can rise even when available import data do not show a comparable increase in demand, particularly when markets anticipate a potential disruption to supply.

Key developments to monitor include:

• US-Iran relations: Any confirmed military action or diplomatic progress could alter expectations about future supply.
• Oil flows from the Gulf: Changes in production, exports or shipping conditions could affect the physical balance.
• Asian import data: New figures may show whether China and other major buyers are increasing purchases.
• Brent crude price movements: Price changes should be assessed alongside supply data and geopolitical developments rather than attributed to a single factor.

The September import figures offer useful context, but more recent data would be needed to determine whether buying patterns have changed in response to the latest escalation fears.

Market Impact

The analysis suggests that Brent’s rise to $116 is driven primarily by fears of renewed conflict with Iran rather than a surge in Chinese oil purchases. If those fears intensify, the geopolitical risk premium could increase further. Conversely, signs of de-escalation or sustained normalization in supply flows could reduce that premium. The direction of oil prices remains uncertain and will depend on how geopolitical expectations and physical market conditions evolve.

Conclusion

China’s oil imports remain below pre-war levels, but the analysis argues that the shortfall largely reflects the loss of Iranian supply rather than a sharp decline in underlying demand. It also finds little evidence in the available data that China is aggressively replenishing its inventories.

Instead, the author sees geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Iran as the primary driver of Brent crude’s rise to $116 per barrel. For oil traders, the key question is whether that risk premium will persist, increase or unwind as new information about military developments and physical supply becomes available.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is China responsible for the recent rise in Brent crude prices?

According to the analysis, China is not the main driver. The author attributes the recent increase primarily to a geopolitical risk premium linked to fears of renewed US strikes against Iran.

How much oil is China importing per day?

China is importing approximately 9 million barrels per day, compared with around 11 million barrels per day before the war with Iran.

Why are China’s oil imports below pre-war levels?

The analysis attributes much of the difference to the loss of Iranian oil supply following the US blockade. Iran’s pre-war oil exports were close to 2 million barrels per day, and China was reportedly their main buyer.

What is a geopolitical risk premium in oil prices?

It is the additional amount traders may be willing to pay because they expect a greater risk of future supply disruptions, such as those caused by military escalation or shipping restrictions.

Could renewed US strikes on Iran push oil prices higher?

They could increase upward pressure on prices if traders expect the conflict to disrupt production, exports or shipping. The actual impact would depend on the scale of escalation and its effect on physical oil supply.

Are Asian oil imports increasing?

The September 2026 data show Japan and South Korea near their pre-war import levels, while India’s imports were 5.4 million barrels per day, up from 4.9 million in September 2025. China remained below its pre-war level. These figures do not establish whether imports increased during October.