US-China Trade Talks Begin Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are meeting Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng for a major round of trade negotiations ahead of the planned Trump-Xi summit on September 24.

The talks are taking place as both sides try to prevent another escalation in trade tensions before the existing trade truce expires on November 10.

Three Key Issues Dominate the Negotiations

Rare Earths and Critical Minerals

One of the most important issues is China’s supply of rare earths and critical minerals, which are essential for global manufacturing and technology.

China had committed to resuming shipments under the previous Busan framework, but U.S. officials say exports have not returned to previous levels. Further increases in export licenses could therefore become an important outcome of the negotiations.

Artificial Intelligence

AI technology is another major focus.

The negotiations include both open-weight and proprietary AI models, with Washington seeking safeguards against potential misuse while attempting to avoid a complete separation between the U.S. and Chinese technology ecosystems.

Unresolved Trade Commitments

Negotiators are also revisiting several unresolved trade issues, including potential reductions in tariffs on non-sensitive goods, Chinese agricultural purchases and proposed U.S. tariffs related to industrial overcapacity and forced-labor concerns.

Geopolitical Issues Add Pressure

The trade negotiations are also being influenced by broader geopolitical developments.

The conflict involving Iran and its impact on energy supplies has emerged as an additional concern. Washington is also monitoring the movement of fentanyl precursor chemicals from China, an issue expected to receive attention during the broader Trump-Xi summit.

The November 10 Deadline

The existing trade truce is scheduled to expire on November 10, increasing the importance of the current negotiations.

Both sides have an incentive to prevent a renewed escalation in tariffs and trade restrictions. Markets will therefore pay close attention to whether the November deadline is extended and whether the two countries can make progress on sensitive supply-chain and technology issues.

What Traders Should Watch

The key market signals will include:

• Any extension of the November 10 trade truce
• Changes in China’s rare-earth export licenses
• New tariff announcements
• Details of any AI agreements
• Chinese agricultural purchases
• Developments in global energy supplies

These developments should be monitored alongside broader Macroeconomic News, Market Analysis and Market Report coverage.

Market Impact

A de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions could reduce concerns about global supply chains and support risk-sensitive assets, while stronger tariffs or renewed export restrictions could increase volatility in industrial commodities, equities and currencies. Traders should particularly watch the U.S. dollar, Chinese yuan, rare-earth-related commodities and technology stocks, with the November 10 deadline serving as a key market catalyst.